纽芬兰纪念大学经济系教授方涛认为,大规模移民对经济的影响,正面为主。
他和他的同事曾经做过一项关于大规模移民对加拿大经济的影响的研究(Macroeconomic Impacts of Canadian Immigration: Results from a Macro Model)。这项研究显示,大规模移民对国民生产总值、人均国民生产总值、总需求、投资、生产力、政府支出、税收等产生正面影响,不会造成失业。不过,这项研究也显示,大规模移民对移民本身来说,会令他们在融入加拿大劳工市场方面面临更多的困难,更多的新移民会陷入贫困。新来的移民对已在加拿大劳工市场的移民会带来负面影响,因为他们被看作可以替代已在的移民,可能会替代他们中的一部分人。
方涛教授认为,帮助移民掌握英语是协助移民融入的重要途径。
麦克马斯特大学经济系博士研究生 Jiong Tu在他的一篇关于移民对劳工市场中本地出生的加拿大人的影响的论文 (The Impact of Immigration on the Labour Market Outcomes of Native-born Canadians)中指出,从上世纪90年代看,大量移民涌入对本地出生加拿大人的工资增长没有负面影响。
Macroeconomic Impacts of Canadian Immigration: Results from a Macro Model
Abstract
We use a macro-econometric forecasting model to simulate the impact on the Canadian economy of a hypothetical increase in immigration. Our simulations generally yield positive impacts on such factors as real gross domestic product (GDP) and GDP per capita, aggregate demand, investment, productivity, and government expenditures, taxes and especially net government balances, with essentially no impact on unemployment. This is generally buttressed by conclusions reached in the existing literature. Our analysis suggests that concern should be with respect to immigrants themselves, as they are having an increasingly difficult time assimilating into the Canadian labour market, and new immigrants are increasingly falling into poverty.
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The Impact of Immigration on the Labour Market Outcomes of Native-born Canadians
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